Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 153.10 price level occurred as the MACD indicator began moving downward from the zero line, confirming a solid entry point for selling the dollar in alignment with the corrective downtrend. As a result, the pair dropped by 20 points. Now, everything depends on the Q3 U.S. GDP data. Weak statistics could be a reason to sell the dollar, even though Japan's Central Bank is unlikely to change its monetary policy at tomorrow's meeting. Poor ADP employment data and the core personal consumption expenditure index could also prompt selling of USD/JPY. Otherwise, the upward trend will likely continue. For the intraday strategy, I'll rely more on Scenario #1, as I expect a strong, directed movement following the data.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at an entry point around 153.15 (green line on the chart), with a target of reaching 153.94. Around 153.94, I plan to exit purchases and open sales in anticipation of a 30–35-point reversal from this level. A strong rise in the pair is expected only after robust U.S. statistics. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning its upward move.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the 152.78 price level is tested twice consecutively, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and prompt an upward reversal. A rise toward the 153.15 and 153.94 levels can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after it drops below 152.78 (red line on the chart), leading to a quick decline in the pair. The primary target for sellers will be 152.12, where I'll exit sell positions and initiate purchases in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point reversal from this level). Following weak U.S. statistics, pressure on the pair could resume. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting its downward move.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the 153.15 price level is tested twice consecutively, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and prompt a downward market reversal. A decline toward the 152.78 and 152.12 levels can be expected.

Chart Key:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the asset.
• Thick green line – projected price for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profit, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the asset.
• Thick red line – projected price for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profit, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When trading, monitor overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise great caution when entering the market. To avoid sharp price fluctuations, it's best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if trading large volumes without money management.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example I've provided here. Making impulsive trading decisions based on immediate market conditions is generally a losing strategy for intraday traders.